The impact of crude oil on the most popular plasti

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Sinochem warehouse receipts: crude oil impact weakened, warehouse receipts fluctuated and fell negatively

I. market review

in this period (December 20 - 3.4 million tons of raw coal on December 27), crude oil rose first and then fell, basically remaining at $62, with a triangular shock consolidation. As of the 27th, futures oil was stable at a high of $61, down $2.05 from the same period last week. The warehouse receipt market basically got out of the embarrassing situation of rising and falling with oil, and went through a volatile market. The current China Plastics price index fell slightly under the influence of the overall gloomy atmosphere. Except that it was reported at 1283.45 points on the 25th due to the rebound of the warehouse receipt market, up 3.69 points from the previous trading day, the overall trend maintained a downward trend, from 1287.11 at the beginning of the period to 1279.96 points on the 27th, down 7.15 points, with a downward range of 0.56%. In this period, the China Plastics warehouse receipt index also consolidated and fell. On the 27th, the China Plastics warehouse receipt index was 1314.22 points, down 9.96 points from the previous period. The market showed a downward trend, and the consolidation range was weak. At the same time, the overall transaction atmosphere was significantly rigid. Buyers and sellers were mainly on the sidelines and short-term operations, while the order volume increased steadily, setting a new record. The highest order volume was 85675 tons on the 25th of this period. In terms of spot, the China Plastics spot index basically fell slightly. By the 27th, the spot index closed at 1237.95, down 3.69 points from the previous period

II. Comments on warehouse receipts

(I) PE

LLDPE warehouse receipts were sideways consolidated in the current period, and the warehouse receipt index closed at 1353.60, up 3.39 points or 0.25% from the same period last week. Taking the main warehouse receipt ll0703 as an example, its settlement price closed at 12552 yuan/ton on the 20th, down 95 yuan/ton, closed at short Yin, and delivered to the 30 day moving average; By the 23rd, the focus of K-line entity trading moved down slightly, but the entity has swallowed the bearish pattern of the previous day, and the settlement price was pulled down to 12499 yuan/ton; On the 25th, it was verified that the bottom swallowing reversal pattern showed an expected rebound, but the transaction still could not be effectively amplified, and the Changyang line was closed on the daily K-line chart, breaking the 5-day moving average; On the 26th and 27th, the volatile market proved that the rebound was weak, and the horizontal consolidation still took time

from the technical point of view, according to the monthly chart, the K-line entity is far away from the 5-day moving average, the MACD smooth moving average dif line remains above the DEA line, the red column becomes larger, and the long-term bullish trend remains unchanged; According to the weekly line, the main warehouse receipt ll0703 was located between the 5-day moving average and the 10-day moving average in the form of a short positive at the end of the day, and the KDJ index crossed and passivated. Now it is only for the participating team to use the ultradur image, and the moving average system is still in a long line; On the daily chart, the K-line entities are basically in shock consolidation below the 20 day moving average, and the range is limited. The KDJ index is upward passivated, MACD points to empty, long and short stalemate, and the form is confused. The main warehouse receipt ll0703 in the late trading was blocked at 12600 yuan/ton, which is difficult to rise. It is estimated that the short-term market is more likely to maintain the shock consolidation trend. From the LL continuous line chart, the short positive line was closed at the end of the period, the entity was under pressure on the 5-day and 10 day average, the BOL opening was tightened, while the entities remained below the price line, and the KDJ index turned upward, but the pressure remained, and the short-term shock situation was difficult to effectively change. From a fundamental point of view, the PE market has always remained light, prices have been slightly consolidated, downstream factories are not enthusiastic about purchasing, and traders' intention to attract goods is not strong, resulting in a stalemate in which the selling and shipping awareness is obvious, and the buying continues to wait and see. By the closing on December 27, the settlement price of ll0701 was 12584 yuan/ton, that of ll0703 was 12595 yuan/ton, that of ll0704 was 12505 yuan/ton, that of ll0705 was 12424 yuan/ton, and that of ll0706 was 12306 yuan/ton. On the whole, on the premise that the fundamentals have not been significantly boosted, the linear warehouse receipt market 8. The application of logic pen and oscilloscope to detect signals is deeply mired in the quagmire of shock consolidation. It is more likely that it will not be able to get out of the big market before New Year's day. At present, it is still in a relatively cautious state of long and short

hdpe market trend is shock consolidation, the transaction atmosphere is light, there is no significant change, and the shock range is wide. The settlement price of the main warehouse receipt hd0703 basically fluctuated between 12640 yuan/ton and 12840 yuan/ton, while the HDPE warehouse receipt index fell 1.31 points to 1000.31 points compared with the same period last week. In terms of transactions, the volume of double transactions was basically flat compared with the previous period, and the transaction atmosphere remained generally weak. On the HDPE connection chart, the K-line entity in this period basically consolidated the market trend. At the end of the period, the K-line of the HDPE warehouse receipt group was under pressure on the 10 day moving average and supported on the 60 day moving average. At the end of the day, the short negative line was closed. The buyer and the seller operated cautiously and the stalemate atmosphere was serious. By the close of trading on the 27th, the settlement prices of hd0701, hd0703, hd0704 and hd0705 were 12758, 12759, 12752 and 12585 yuan/ton respectively. At present, both long and short sides basically maintain a wait-and-see situation, and mainly focus on short-term operations. Recently, HDPE warehouse receipts are more likely to maintain a weak consolidation, and this pattern is likely to maintain a short-term market

(II) pp

pp this period showed a volatile market trend, with the market index falling 14.42 points to 1314.78 points, a range of 1.08%. According to the current form of PP's main warehouse receipt pp0704, the focus of trading on the daily K-line has moved down steadily. At the end of the period, the cross line was closed and was under pressure on the 5-day moving average. The long and short sides were evenly matched, and the wait-and-see atmosphere was getting stronger; In terms of double volume, the order volume increased sharply, the trading volume was depressed, the trading atmosphere was rigid, and traders operated cautiously and mainly on the sidelines. At the beginning of the period, the PP warehouse receipt index closed at 1329.20 points, down 1.01 points from the closing of the previous trading day. The transaction volume was significantly reduced, the order volume was stable, moderate and slightly reduced, and the market bullish confidence was obviously insufficient. After the main warehouse receipt pp0704 opened slightly lower, the intraday price gradually fluctuated and fell, the daily K-line closed short and overcast, and the entity was below the 20 day moving average, so the wait-and-see was heavy; On the 22nd, stimulated by the sharp drop in crude oil, PP's main warehouse orders all jumped short and opened low. Then, driven by buying, the disk fluctuated upward, and finally closed out the Changyang line, making up for the gap of the day's jump at one fell swoop. After pp0704 opened sharply low, the price gradually fluctuated and rose. At one time, the intraday fell back slightly, the Nikkei K line closed at the Changyang line, and the disk trading was active, with most hands changed; On the 25th, after the main warehouse receipts opened low and fell, they fluctuated higher, closed close close close to the highest point of the day, closed out the Dayang line, broke through the 5-day moving average, and continued to rebound on the 22nd. The transaction volume shrank sharply due to the limitation of warehouse volume, and both long and short sides were cautious; By December 27, the PP warehouse receipt index closed at 1318.03, down 2.12 points from yesterday's close. The overall trend of the market was to open low and go high and then go down. Pp0704 fell first, then fluctuated upward, fell after exploring the 5-day moving average, and finally closed out the cross star. The transaction shrank, maintaining a volatile pattern. The settlement price of pp0701 is 12465 yuan/ton, pp0703 is 12188 yuan/ton, pp0704 is 12159 yuan/ton, pp0705 is 12149 yuan/ton, and pp0706 is 12030 yuan/ton. On the whole, the market performance of PP raw materials is relatively bleak, the market is stable and declining, and the transaction situation has not significantly improved. Downstream factories continue to maintain the purchase method of buying on demand, while most traders generally feel that business is difficult to do, with high purchase prices, low shipping profits, and slow delivery, so they are mainly short-term operations. Given that the long-term bullish pattern of the comprehensive indicators has not changed, and the short-term overall trend of the market is dominated by the downside, if the fundamentals match, it is estimated that the possibility of continuous shock and downside of PP warehouse receipts is still large


the overall performance of this period is the market trend of concussion and exploration, with a small range and poor capacity. ABS spot market performance is flat, the transaction situation is poor, the price is generally stable, and some of them fluctuate slightly. Both traders and downstream users have weak intention to prepare goods, and the operation is cautious. The ABS warehouse receipt index fell 1.58 from the previous period to close at 1269.18. The settlement price of the main warehouse receipt ab0703 fell from 15642 yuan/ton at the beginning of the period to 15565 yuan/ton at the end of the period, with a decrease of about 80 yuan. The crude oil price in this period is basically a volatile and slightly falling market trend with consolidation and unknown direction. There are no favorable factors to change the current stalemate in the market. It is expected that the recent ABS market price will basically be in the shock consolidation stage. The settlement price of ab0701 is 15792 yuan/ton, the settlement price of ab0703 is 15565 yuan/ton, and the settlement price of ab0704 is 15660 yuan/ton


the PVC warehouse receipt market in this period is in a volatile market. The main warehouse receipt pv0701 mainly sorted out the price range, which was slightly lower than that of the previous period, with limited range, light transaction and intraday deadlock. The warehouse receipt index rose from 1075.49 on the 20th to 1077.23 on the 27th, up 1.74 points. At the end of the period, the PVC warehouse receipt opened slightly higher, the intraday price fluctuated downward, turned up to down, and closed lower in the late afternoon. The warehouse receipt index fell 2.33 points to close at 1077.23. The daily K-line closed at a short negative line, and the entity intersected with the 5-day moving average. The intraday trading atmosphere was general, and the trading volume fell sharply. At the closing on December 27, the settlement price of pv0701 was 6562 yuan/ton, that of pv0703 was 6513 yuan/ton, and that of pv0704 was 6562 yuan/ton. From the continuous chart of PVC Zhongsu warehouse receipts, PVC is in a shock consolidation situation, the K-line entity is under pressure on the 5-day average, the order volume is decreasing day by day, and the transaction atmosphere is low. On the whole, the market trend is flat and rigid in the short term, but the possibility of the general trend maintaining shock and weakening remains unchanged

III. future forecast

the current period of volatility plays an important role in determining the initial tone of the market trend in 2007. In this period, under the general situation of the spot market, dealers and downstream manufacturers basically take a cautious attitude of operation, and it is unlikely to expect the downstream to start in the last week of 2006. The factors that affect the market next week focus on various factors that may affect the mentality, such as crude oil and petrochemical policies. It is expected that as long as there is no negative impact of petrochemicals next week, the warehouse receipt market will consolidate and fluctuate in the consolidation range, and the price will fluctuate up and down in a small range as a whole, and there is a great possibility of steady downward exploration. This wave of market is likely to continue until new year's day

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