The imbalance between supply and demand is the mos

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The imbalance between supply and demand has become the most important factor in the sharp rise of natural rubber

the trend of the domestic rubber market in November can be said to be very dramatic. It has experienced the process of rushing to the cloud and then falling to the bottom, especially Tianjiao. The spot market price of natural rubber rose wildly in the first ten days of the year, hitting new highs repeatedly. According to the statistics of xuejinlei, an analyst of China chemical industry, the spot market price of natural rubber GB No.1 was generally around 30000 in early November, and has soared to more than 35000 in the middle of the year, with an increase of 16.7% in just ten days. Compared with the increase of about 30% of steel with higher requirements in early October, based on the spot price of 16000 yuan/ton of natural rubber in October last year, the current price of natural rubber has more than doubled in one year. The price of this round of natural rubber has greatly exceeded the highest price of 28000 yuan/ton before the financial crisis. However, after the middle of the year, the market turned sharply downward, the price plummeted by more than 3000, and the market once fell to the freezing point

the imbalance between supply and demand is the most important factor leading to the sharp rise of natural rubber. The sharp decline in supply has made the contradiction between natural rubber and rigid demand increasingly prominent. The recent disastrous weather in the rubber producing areas of the world has seriously affected the natural rubber Market: Thailand's natural rubber production may decline by 4.1% to 930000 tons in the fourth quarter due to heavy rainfall affecting rubber cutting. Among the two major production areas in China, Yunnan suffered from severe drought and Hainan suffered heavy rain, which affected the rubber harvest. It is expected that by December, the rubber production will soon drop to about 1/3 of that in October. The reduction of domestic natural rubber production this year is a foregone conclusion, which may be more than 40000 tons less than last year, a decrease of about 6% compared with 2009. In terms of downstream demand, the high prosperity of the domestic automobile industry also supports the price of Tianjiao. According to the latest auto production and sales data released by the China Association of automobile manufacturers, from January to September this year, China's auto production and sales increased by 36.1% and 36.0% year-on-year respectively. At present, China's rubber production can only meet one fifth of domestic demand. This year, China's rubber consumption is expected to increase by nearly 9% to 3.3 million tons, and the automobile sales volume is expected to increase by nearly 30% in the same period. Given that the wet weather will continue until at least the first quarter of next year, it is expected that the tight situation of rubber supply will continue until next year

the sharp decline in the Tianjiao market in the middle and late part of the year is closely related to the pressure of the tightening of national macro policies on the one hand, and on the other hand, it is related to the rapid rise in the early stage, phased adjustments, and investors' profit taking and leaving. However, the tight international Tianjiao supply before the year and the hot Chinese car market at the end of the year will form a strong support for the spot price of Tianjiao and enter the Chinese market recently, so it is difficult to reverse the market situation of Tianjiao, At present, it can only be said to be a phased callback. Although, from a macro perspective, the direction of domestic tightening policy seems to have been determined, and the inventories of China and Japan gradually increase and return to normal levels, China's car market next year may slow down and other negative factors are full of it, but the growing gap between supply and demand of natural rubber around the world can only be made up by price increases, and the contradiction between supply and demand will continue to support the high price of natural rubber

however, there are also some hidden dangers in the high cost. From the perspective of the domestic natural rubber market, the contradiction between the upstream and downstream industrial chains has escalated again. Due to the relatively scattered pattern of the domestic tire industry and the low anti risk ability, the recent high cost of natural rubber prices, the small downstream tire factories have been unable to accept the high price of raw materials, some factories have been shut down and have holidays, and the spot market quotation is priceless for most of the time. The rapidly increasing costs can not be transmitted in time, which also brings heavy pressure to downstream manufacturers. Therefore, CHEMCHINA suggests: Method 1: control costs to realize recycling, and use environmental friendly and recyclable equipment in the production process, which can not only reduce environmental pollution, but also save materials, killing two birds with one stone. In addition, in the production process, we should try to reduce the defective products caused by manual problems. Even if there are defective products, we can also adopt the method of reducing from 10.4% in the first 10 years to 7.6% in the next 10 years for secondary utilization, so as to save costs. Method 2: enterprises should develop in a large-scale and professional way. Enterprises should be positioned as professional and large-scale manufacturers, and gradually become stronger and bigger. The development of specialization to attract new enterprise exhibitions in the renewable industry is also one of the overall development trends of the industry in the future. We should develop the enterprise into not only a brand provider; It is also a professional manufacturer. Compared with choosing to reduce the cost as much as possible when raw materials rise, it is more advantageous to solve the problem through the standardization of output by specialized brand manufacturing and specialized brand processing. Method 3: Merger and reorganization is more urgent than vehicle. At present, the focus of merger and reorganization is on vehicle enterprises. The reorganization of parts enterprises is actually more urgent and necessary than vehicle enterprises. If there are no large parts enterprises, the cost cannot be reduced and the quality cannot be improved, the development of the whole industry will be extremely difficult. Domestic parts enterprises are small in scale, weak in strength and seriously insufficient in R & D capacity. In this context, if the parts industry wants to develop rapidly, it must speed up mergers and acquisitions to form a cluster effect

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